Wednesday, February 19, 2003

A War for Bananas? - Part IV, Iraq

The Pools

With proven reserves of 112-billion bbl and probable reserves of 214-billion bbl, Iraq has the second largest crude reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia. It also has 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

Two-thirds of Iraq's production comes out of southern fields in the Shi’ite zone of the country. Although much of the southern oil infrastructure was damaged during the Gulf war, the oil potential of this region alone is huge. More huge, still, is the untapped Western Desert region under which lie an estimated additional 100 billion barrels.

The Pipes

The presently proven reserves are serviced by four pipeline networks:

1. Iraq-Turkey. The 600-mile, 40-inch Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is Iraq's largest operable crude export pipeline. It services the European market. This Iraq-Turkey link has a fully-operational capacity of 1.1 million bbl/d, but is working at about 900,000 bbl/d. A second, parallel, 46-inch line has an optimal capacity of 500,000 bbl/d but at last report was inoperable.

2. Iraq-Syria. The 50-year-old, rusting Banias oil pipeline from Iraq's northern Kirkuk oil fields to Syria's Mediterranean port of Banias (and to Tripoli in Lebanon) was considered defunct; but, as of October 2002, the pipeline reportedly was being used (see above), and there also was talk of building a new, parallel pipeline as a replacement.

3. Persian Gulf Outlet. Iraq has three tanker terminals in the Persian Gulf. These terminals are linked to a reversible, 1.4-million bbl/d North-South pipeline built by Iraq in 1975. The system allows for export north through Turkey or south to the Persian Gulf. However, the entire system was severely damaged during the Iran-Iraq and Gulf wars.

4. Iraq-Saudi Arabia. Iraq has also pumped oil through Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea port of Yanbu (Mu'jiz) . However, in June 2001, Saudi Arabia announced that it had confiscated the line included pumping stations, storage tanks, and the maritime terminal. Iraq insisted that it still owned the pipeline, and in May 2002, stated that the line was "ready for export." (In addition to these transportation networks, Iraq trucks oil to Jordan, but this arrangement is of local benefit only.)
Production Problems

Iraq’s entire oil infrastructure was seriously degraded during the Iran-Iraq and Gulf wars and Iraq has resorted to old technology and questionable techniques (i.e., over pumping, water-injection or "flooding") to maintain production even though the questionable techniques could permanently damage some reserves. Notwithstanding the obvious need for serious capital improvements, the U S government Energy Information Agency (EIA) states: “Iraq's oil production costs are amongst the lowest in the world, making it a highly attractive oil prospect.”

However, as of the moment, Iraq deals with just about everyone except American companies who are out of the prospects largely on account of unilateral sanctions imposed by the US government.

Sales

An estimated 30% of Iraqi oil is sold initially to Russian firms. The remaining 70% of Iraq's oil is sold to a grab-bag of countries including Cyprus, Sudan, Pakistan, China, Vietnam, Egypt, Italy, Ukraine, and others. Iraqi oil is normally then resold to a variety of oil companies and middlemen before being purchased by end users, among them: Exxon/Mobil, Chevron, Citgo, BP, Marathon, Coastal, Valero, Koch, and Premcor. In this indirect manner the United States imported an average of 566,000 bbl/d from Iraq in the first half of 2002.

Thus, although U.S. companies do not deal directly with Baghdad and although they are not, at present, involved in production, the United States has become the greatest single end-purchaser of Iraqi oil.

According to ABC News, as of mid 2000, the U.S. refiners largely obtained their crude oil from Russian firms, or middlemen working through Russian firms. However, an authoritative Iraqi source says that as much as 90 percent of the actual amount of Iraq's estimated 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) are going to U.S. Gulf coast refineries. This was confirmed by the authoritative oil journal Middle East Economic Survey. There is such demand for Iraqi crude in the United States, the report says, that Saddam is banking on it to mitigate the Bush administration's enmity toward his dictatorship in Iraq, and therefore, any attempts to oust him.

Official sales are effected through the United Nations, oil-for-food program. Until early2000, the transactions were posted on a public web site. However, when the Washington Post began to trace deals to companies run by members of the Bush II team, the U.N. closed the site down claiming the information was proprietary. According to the Post, the veil of secrecy allows the U.S and Iraq to engage in their respective public posturing while dealing under the table.

In addition to the above official and U.N. approved sales, the U.S. General Accounting Office estimates that, from 1997 to 2001 Iraq earned $6 billion dollars from illegal oil sales using small tankers sailing under Persian or other false cover.

Development

Russia, which is owed several billions of dollars by Iraq for past arms deliveries, has a strong interest in Iraqi oil development, including a $3.5-billion, 23-year deal to rehabilitate Iraqi oil-fields. The other major development player is China. Another grab-bag of countries from Indonesia to Spain are involved in lesser degrees.

1. Southern Fields:

Iraq hopes to counter production declines in this area by a large-scale program to drill new wells most of which are to be carried out by Russian, Chinese, Iraqi, and Rumanian companies. In October 2001, a joint Russian-Belarus oil company, Slavneft, signed a $52 million service contract with Iraq on the 2-billion-barrel, Suba-Luhais field in southern Iraq, and expecting to sign a service contract to begin drilling later this year. Another Russian company, Lukoil, has a concession to spend $4 billion to develop a "super" oil field in southern Iraq with reserves estimated at 15 billion barrels or the equivalent of the recovery from the North Sea. In October 2002, Lukoil's Chief Executive (Vagit Alekperov) said his belief that the West Qurna contract would "be upheld no matter what happens" in Iraq, and that he had received "guarantees" on this matter from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

2. Northern Fields

The Kirkuk field, with over 10 billion barrels in remaining proven oil reserves, forms the basis for northern Iraqi oil production. In December 2001, the Turkish Petroleum International Corporation won a U.N.-approved contract to drill for oil in northern Iraq, near Kirkuk. Two Russian companies -- Tatneft and Zarubezhneft -- have won U.N. -approved upstream contracts at the Bai Hassan fields.

3. The West & Smaller Fields.

Smaller fields with under 2 billion barrels in reserves also are receiving interest from foreign oil companies, among them Eni (Italy), Repsol (Spain), Pertamina (Indonesia), PetroVietnam, Noor (Syria) and others . Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol appear to be strong possibilities to develop Nassiriya. Indonesia's Pertamina signed an exploration contract for Block 3 in the Western Desert. Other companies reportedly interested in the Western Desert region include: Repsol, Lundin, Sonatrach, MOL, Petronas, Ranger, and TPAO.

In total, Deutsche Bank estimates that international oil companies in Iraq may have signed deals on new or old fields amounting to nearly 50 billion barrels of reserves, 4 million bbl/d of potential production, and investment potential of more than $20 billion.

©Barfo 2003



Tuesday, February 18, 2003

A War for Bananas? - Part III - An Afghanistan Sharing Our Values

A bleaker prospect than Afghanistan’s craggy mountains is hard to imagine; but whereas the country may be poor in resources it is rich -- as it has been since Alekhandars’ time -- in routes. As stated a few days before September 11 by the (official) U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Afghanistan's significance from an energy standpoint stems from its geographical position as a potential transit route for oil and natural gas exports from central Asia to the Arabian sea.” Kazakhstani oil and gas do not need to transit Afghanistan to reach Europe; for that the Caspian or Northern pipelines suffice. But Europe is a bit market. The big oil market in the 21st century is Asia and the major player in getting oil there is Unocal.

Experts expect the Asian oil market to double by 2010 whereas Western oil demand is expected to grow at between 0.5 and 1.2 per cent. The American Conference Board calculates that China’s economy grew 8% in 2002 and that her economy will eclipse that of the European Union between 2010 and 2020. Not without reason, Unocal has pursued plans for the construction of a northern gas pipeline through Kyrgyzstan to feed China, a southern line through Afghanistan tofeed India and an oil line to the Arabian Sea, through Afghanistan and Pakistan, to feed both.

John Maresca, vice president of international relations for Unocal states: “At Unocal, we believe the central factor in planning these pipelines should be the location of the future energy markets. Unocal foresees a pipeline which would become part of a regional system that will gather oil from existing pipeline infrastructure in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia.” The 1,040 mile-long 42-inch pipeline would extend south through Afghanistan to an export terminal on the Pakistan coast. The project would cost $2 billion, but the profits would be enormous.

To complete these projects, Unocal began negotiating with the Taliban in 1995. The company's scheme required a single administration in Afghanistan, which would guarantee safe passage for its goods. It has been said by knowledgeable observers that American policy was written by Unocal and that the dream of securing a pipeline across Afghanistan was the main reason the US was so supportive of the Taliban. Doing the honors, Unocal invited Taliban leaders where they were royally entertained and wooed with offers of 15 cents for every thousand cubic feet of gas pumped through Taliban lands. Said a US diplomat (1997) “the Taliban will probably develop like the Saudis did. There will be Aramco (the former US oil consortium in Saudi Arabia) pipelines, an emir, no parliament and lots of Sharia law. We can live with that.”

However, the Clinton administration could not live with Ossama Bin Laden’s bombing of American embassies. Clinton withdrew support for the Taliban and Unocal had to shelve its pipeline dreams due to the “instability” of the situation. It’s chief consultant on the project Zalmay Khalilzad moved on to the Rand Corporation think tank.

Everything changed again after 9-11. With the Taliban gone, the situation has (at least officially) “stabilized” and Unocal is back in the running. On Dec. 31, Bush appointed Zalmay Kahililzad as his special envoy to Afghanistan. “This is a moment of opportunity for Afghanistan,” Khalizilzad said. Certainly for Unocal. Pakistan's Frontier Post reports that U.S. ambassador Wendy Chamberlain met in October with Pakistan's oil minister to discuss reviving the Unocal project. The Asia Times reports that many industry experts consider Unocal's revived Afghan adventure fatally flawed and expect the U.S. to ultimately wise up and pursue an Iran deal. As of the present, that does not seem to be the case.

Of course, changed events produce changed accents. According to Unocal, “We have worked very closely with the University of Nebraska at Omaha in developing a training program for Afghanistan which will be open to both men and women.” A penny for Unocal is a penny for women’s advancement!

©Barfo, 2003

Monday, February 17, 2003

A War for Bananas? - Part II, Caspi-Stan & The Eternal Pillars of Fire

The Pool

Ancient Zorastrians worshipped the gaseous Eternal Pillars of Fires that shot into the heavens from the soil of Baku. Trudging through Central Asia, in the 13th century, Marco Polo reported rumors of a spring in Baku that produced a black liquid, which, though not edible, was "good to burn," and useful for cleaning the mange off camels. In those days, the West was more interested in pepper and noodles so it would be several centuries before it took a more than passing interest in camel-grooming goo.

By the 19th century, goo was gold. Baku, the Azerbaijani port-capital on the Caspian Sea, was back on the map. In 1873, Robert and Ludwig Nobel made their way to Baku where they taught the natives how to pump -- rather than scoop -- for oil. By the end of the century, the Nobels and the Paris Rothschilds, were competing for control of the region’s reserves which, at the time, supplied approximately half the world’s oil.

During the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, Wilson noted that “There came in a very dignified and interesting group of gentleman from Azerbaijan - I was talking to men who talked the same language that I did in respect of ideals, in respect of conceptions of liberty, in conceptions of right and justice.”

Evidently in respect of the same conceptions, the Bolsheviks annexed Azerbaijan and took control of its resources. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ex-Soviet republics of Central Asia, believing oil to be the fastest way for them to secure their economic and political independence, have sought to exploit their oil wealth.

The region's untapped oil reserves are estimated to be worth up to $2,000 billion. Six US oil giants -- Unocal, Total, Chevron/Texaco, Pennzoil, Amoco and Exxon/Mobil -as well as British Petroleum - have invested billions in the massive oil-field potential in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- the so-called “stan-countries”. According to the Asia Times, Jim Baker, Brent Scrowcroft John Sununu and Dick Cheney -- the Bush I team -- have all closed major deals directly and indirectly on behalf of the oil companies.

Of course, there are always the smaller deals, such as the $30 million contract Haliburton signed in early 2001 with the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan to develop a 6,000 square-meter marine base to support off shore oil construction in the Caspian.

But among the biggest and most geo-politically important deals was a $20 billion production agreement between Chevron/Texaco and Kazahkstan signed in 1993 for the development of the Tengiz field considered the world's largest oil find inthe past two decades. The deal undoubtedly owed a lot to Cheney who served on the Kazakhstan Oil Advisory Board and had close ties with Chevron and Texaco. Exxon/Mobil owns a further 25 per cent interest in the field.

In 2002, Kazahkstan sought to raise its fees, claiming among other things that Chevron and Mobil had created a bio-hazard by dumping and spewing sulfur. The oil companies countered that a little sulfur was no big deal and that the government was trying to extort additional revenue. By the end of the year, the dispute was resolved by comprise.

Although some initial estimates in the frenzied 90’s have turned out to be a little over-optimistic, it remains the case that behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, the “Caspi-Stan” is probably the world’s third largest pool of oil. But development and production is the easy part. The vexing difficulty is how and through whom to transport the oil and, in particular, how to supply the energy-hungry Asian-Pacific economies.

The Pipes

There are three main pipeline routes for Caspi-Stan oil. Knowing what they are is to know the problems involved.

1. The Northern (East-West) Russian Route - Tengiz - Novorossiysk - Bosporus

The first new $2.65 billion pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium - a joint venture including Russia, Kazakhstan, Oman, ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil links the enormous Tengiz oil-field in northwestern Kazakhstan to the Russian port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. From there oil can be shipped to the world through the Bosporus. Turkey, however, does not favor this route because, it says, of the environmental hazard to the straits.

2. The Southern (East-West) Turkish Route - Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan

The Baku-Ceyhan pipeline cuts diagonally across eastern Turkey to outlet on the Mediterranean at the very juncture between Turkey and Syria. The pipeline consortium for Baku-Ceyhan, led by British Petroleum, is represented by the law firm Baker & Botts, the principal partner of which is Texan superstar James Baker, former U.S. Secretary of State. Turkey favors this route as does Israel.

3. The Trans-Caspian - Tengiz to Baku

The Southern Route is only half the journey, however. It is still necessary to get the oil from Tengiz to Baku To this end the Cheney/Bush White House has promoted the development of multiple trans-Caspian pipelines that would bypass the Northern/Russian route. Enron - the biggest donor to the Bush campaign of 2000 - conducted the feasibility study for the $2.5 billion trans-Caspian pipeline to be built under a joint venture signed almost three years ago between Turkmenistan and Bechtel and General Electric. The go-between in the deal was the Israeli Mehrav Group which, according to the Asia Times, “spent a fortune hiring the Washington lobbying firm Cassidy and Associates to seduce official Washington with the trans-Caspian pipeline project.”

4. The Persian (North-South) Route

In so far as getting oil to the Orient is concerned, the North-South route through Iran is both traditional and logical. From ports on the Persian Sea, oil can be tankered to India, China and Japan without the circuitous bottle neck involved in getting oil from the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean. As far back as 1979, while Americans were being held hostage in Tehran, Russia and Iran signed up on a joint gas pipeline. Russia is the likely co-partner for the development of parallel oil pipelines.

5. The Great Pipe of China.

A logical alternative which receives little attention in the West is the proposed Eastern Route from Central Asia to China's Xinjiang province. As yet in the proposal stage, such a pipeline (for oil, gas or both) would be under primary control of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), most likely in partnership with the so-called “Shanghai Six” (the Shangahi Cooperation Organization ) consisting of China and Russia, plus four Central Asian republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Takijistan and Uzbekistan).

The Plans

Before the September 11 attacks, the US Energy Advisory Board outlined American government thinking on Caspian oil: “Stated US policy goals regarding energy resources in this region include fostering the independence of the states and their ties to the west; breaking Russia's monopoly over oil and gas transport routes; promoting western energy security through diversified suppliers; encouraging the construction of east-west pipelines that do not transit Iran, and denying Iran dangerous leverage over the Central Asian economies.”

Initially, American oil companies were not entirely adverse to transporting oil through a North-South Iranian pipeline, since these would be cheaper than theEast-West Caspian Sea alternatives. However, Iran is anathema in Washington and the Clinton Administration exerted tremendous pressure on the oil giants to build more expensive Caspian pipelines, equally avoiding reliance on Russia.

Given the official mind-set in Washington it is somewhat mystifying why the Mehrav Group should have spent a fortune hiring Cassidy and Associates to lobby for the trans-Caspian pipeline project. Whatever the case, and whether or not Russia is allured with partnerships in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, Washington’s Central Asian policy is in place.

A front-page story in the Jan. 9, 2002 New York Times revealed that “the United States is preparing a military presence in Central Asia that could last for years,” including the building of a permanent air base in the Kyrgyz Republic, formerly part of the Soviet Union. The Bush II Administration says that it just wants to keep an eye on postwar Afghanistan, but few students of the region buy the official story.

China and Russia reached their own conclusions. In June 2002, they pulled the four central Asian republics into a “Shanghai Cooperation Organization”. Its purpose, according to Jiang Zemin, is to “foster world multi- polarization”, by which he means contesting the uni-polarity of US policy often referred to as the doctrine of “full-spectrum dominance”.

The Asian Times reports that China is using the SCO to align Russia economically and politically towards China and northeast Asia. At the same time, Russia is using the SCO to maintain its traditional hegemony in Central Asia. The name of the game for solidifying the alliance is Russian export of its enormous reserves of oil and gas.

©Barfo 2003

Sunday, February 16, 2003

A War for Bananas? - Part I, Peeling the Options

Is there any man, is there any woman, let me say any child here, that does not know that the seed of war in the modern world is industrial and commercial rivalry?”

- President Woodrow Wilson, at the Paris Peace Conference in 1919.
It was an odd statement coming from the man who called the Great War a crusade to “make the world safe for Democracy” yet, as millions took to the streets of Europe to protest against an imminent and unilateral invasion of Iraq there was hardly a man, woman or child who would have doubted that Bush & Gang were out for oil.

But it has to be asked: is the impending preemptive strike against Iraq really a “war for oil” the way the United States once waged war for bananas?

Part I - The Options.

The answer to this question is not as easy as one might think. While there is a mass of often repetitive circumstantial evidence pointing to the somewhat obvious fact that American oil companies have interests and aims in Iraqi oil, no direct and hard evidence has come to light proving that specific oil companies are pushing for a war of commodity conquest. If anything, the evidence tends to be that major oil company interests are adverse to war with its attendant risks -- although they are not at all adverse to making as many profitable deals as they can with Hussein or anyone else, as opportunity and circumstance permit. That, after all, is the “bottom line”.

Complicating the search for an answer is the fact that virtually no one speaks plainly about anything. Four years ago, Hans Blix stated that 90-95% of Iraq's arsenal of chemical and biological weapons had been dealt with. There was not a country in the world that had been so comprehensively disarmed. The basic structure of Iraq's weapons-making industry had been destroyed.

Nevertheless, in what surely qualifies as Neo Dada, hours upon hours of diplomatic time, air time and newsprint have been used up in the past months on the issues of inspections, more inspections, no more inspections, more disclosure, enough disclosure and so on. The U.S. Government insists that it has undisclosable information about undisclosed, probable weapons production facilities which might possibly be linkable to known terrorist networks. Just look, ten empty pipes were found!!!! “Precisely” add the French, which is why we need deeper and more penetrating inspections for as long as it takes to find more empty pipes and make sure that none are not empty.

What is clear is only that the parties are jockeying but what they say is otherwise meaningless and therefore of no help in finding out why and over what they are jockeying.

About the only at least straightforward voice in this regard was that of Richard Perle, Bush’s pro-Israeli imperialist adviser who, speaking in November 2002 to a British Parliamentary committee, stated that, regardless of what was found or not found, the United States “reserved the right” to attack Iraq anyway.

The utter meaningless of this remark is what makes it instructive. Just like any boy in the playground, all states “reserve the right to attack”. The question usually concerns why, under what circumstances and pursuant to what provocation. Perle certainly did not need to belabor the obvious to a Parliamentary Committee. Did he then mean, that the United States reserved the right to attack even if it had no right to do so under international law anyway?

What was being signaled by Perle was that all this yabber about inspecting weapons programs was just stuff and nonsense. The United States was itchin’ to go to war against Iraq. Fine. But the question remains why? To steal oil? And if not that, then for what?

One view is that the conflict is for control of oil as the sine qua non of industrial production and development. According to this view, American geo-economic policy in Central Asia and the Middle East is aimed at gaining direct or indirect control of the world’s three most important petroleum reserves: Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the Central Asian countries of the “Caspi-Stan” US interests are already well positioned in Central Asia, so that control over Iraqi oil would be a bonanza in itself as well as the key to leveraging OPEC. One proponent of this view is Michel Collon, Belgian author of "Monopoly". According to him, oil and gas by themselves are not the aim of the U.S.: “If you want to rule the world, you need to control oil. All the oil. Anywhere."

In a recent interview given to England’s socialist leader Tony Benn, Saddam Hussein adopted Collon’s thesis in order to explain American policy. According to Hussein,
Those people and others have been telling the various US administrations, especially the current one, that if you want to control the world you need to control the oil. Therefore the destruction of Iraq is a pre-requisite to controlling oil. That means the destruction of the Iraqi national identity, since the Iraqis are committed to their principles and rights according to international law and the UN charter.”
"It seems that this argument has appealed to some US administrations especially the current one. If they control the oil in the Middle East, they would be able to control the world. They could dictate to China the size of its economic growth and interfere in its education system and could do the same to Germany and France and perhaps to Russia and Japan. They might even tell the same to Britain if its oil doesn't satisfy its domestic consumption. It seems to me that this hostility is a trademark of the current US administration and is based on its wish to control the world and spread its hegemony.”
Collon’s thesis is true enough, as far as it goes; but it assumes that there is a desire “to rule the world” in the first place. Normally, nations do not desire to rule the world for the pure fun of it, but rather -- as Wilson stated -- for the economic gain empire entails. There can be little dispute that a Plunder Policy is at the heart of the Bush Administration’s thinking on anything. It repudiated the Kyoto Accords, it sought to open up protected Alaska preserves to oil drilling, it has pushed through new regulations that open up millions and millions of beautiful American forest to industry clear-cutting.

This is an administration that makes the Vandals look good. But plundering the world and ruling it are not quite the same thing. Indeed the essence of the public criticism of Bush II policy put forth by members of the Bush I team is that it is possible to plunder without letting loose a conflagration in the Middle East. Put another way, if gas and oil themselves are not the reason for waging war in Iraq what other concrete justification is advanced for the immense expense and risks involved other than some amorphous or testosteronal “desire to rule the world”?

While the evidence of an oil-company motive for war is equivocal, there is a well known paper trail evidencing a hegemonistic motive within the Administration, advanced by former Reaganite advisors who believe in what they postulate as the inherent, a priori good of extending American military and economic power and who see any potential rivalry to this unilateral triumph as something to be destroyed.

In other words, testosteronal or not, there are protagonists within the Administration who proclaim that hegemony is an absolute good in and of itself and who would have it be believed that this final good is the sole motivation of policy.

This is an extremely important distinction; one which lies at the very heart of Orwell’s 1984. Cynical as Woodrow Wilson’s remark might have been, a war for bananas makes at least caloric sense. The exercise of power for its own sake is simply sadism as policy. In 1984’s concluding interrogations Brian reveals to Winston that there is no point in arguing anymore because the Party discovered that there was no need to justify why power is exercised; power is its own absolute good,

“The image of the State in 1984 is that of a boot in the face.”

But that is precisely the manner in which elements within the American political establishment talk. According to them, the first step in this march toward a New American World Order, is regime change in Iraq. As described by the Administration itself, “regime change” begins with a rapid fire barrage of conventional missiles of such intensity and rapidity as to be the non-nuclear “equivalent” of Hiroshima. This is said without a blush; and what “regime change” entails is the further physical obliteration of an already wrecked country and its occupation for some indefinite period of time. Not without reason a “very high U.N. official” -- (one supposes the Secretary General) -- was quoted in recent a Guardian article as calling these advisors “sinister men”.

Studies have concluded that the cost of occupying Iraq would alone exceed any realizable profit from its oil fields and that subjugation of Iraq does not necessarily equate with a bonanza of oil-profits. Furthermore, “stabilizing” Iraq would not be the end-game by any means. Iraq, is only the first of three along the so-called Axis of Evil, and after Iran and North Korea, stands China, who is poised to be the real oil-hungry, industrial power house of the 21st century. If the consequential costs of the war are known beforehand to exceed the potential value of bananas, then the war cannot be said to be waged for economic reasons.

But between war for profit and war for pure hegemony, there is always the third alternative of a war for geo-political security. The difficulty here, is that the United States is in no ways territorially threatened by Iraq. The only countries Iraq has the capacity to threaten are Turkey, Syria, Iran, the Arab states and Israel. But none of the Muslim countries are complaining, at least not in public.

On the other hand, the proponents of the America’s new imperialism assert a compatibility verging on coincidence between Israeli and United States interests. And, indeed, the only other parties in the world calling for an attack and/or destruction of Iraq are various members of the Likud and the Israeli political establishment.

Assuming arguendo that such a destruction would benefit the United States as well, left unexplained is how a new century of perpetual conflict after Iraq with other “potential” threats to American preeminence would be of benefit to anyone. If this is indeed the policy that is afoot, the millions who took to the streets this past weekend protested far more than they knew.

The ensuing installments of this article can only scratch the surface of what is a complicated subject in which hard-proof of critical facts is not easily come by. The best I can hope to do is to summarize some of the information on record so that the reader can draw his own conclusions.

© Barfo, 2003

Tuesday, October 15, 2002

FEAR AND LOATHING IN THE NEW AMERICAN CENTURY


A few weeks ago The Onion, published a satire titled, Bush Seeks UN Support for US Does Whatever it Wants Plan. According to The Onion, during his speech to the General Assembly, Bush insisted the UN give the United States carte blanche for the United States to remove any leader it did not like, to pillage any resources it wanted and to make whatever demands it deemed expedient.

Bush assured his audience that as soon as the UN granted the carte blanche, the United States would simultaneously invade Iraq, Cuba and North Korea. What’s more, in view of the fact that America was the Beacon of Liberty for the whole world, it would also prohibit protests against the United States by anyone, individuals or states alike.

The joke within the joke is this supposedly mythical plan is in fact the real and actual policy of Bush Administration -- or, more precisely, of the cabal formed around the Cheney - Rumsfeld axis.

In September 2000, the New American Century, a neo-con think tank, headed by Billy Kristol, published a report entitled “Rebuilding American Defenses” Although the study did not anticipate the events of 9/11, it otherwise served as a blue-print for the policies of the Bush Administration.

It goes without saying that the report is written in that detached and impersonal tone so characteristic of affectedly “objectified” bureaucratic and academic jargon. The clipped speech of what Conrad Heiden called the “technological brute.”

At the same time, the report is structured so to give an impression of rigorously deduced conclusions flowing from obvious premises, indisputable facts and penetrating, no-illusions, in-depth, analysis -- all of which puts the study beyond the ken of mere ordinary people and distinguishes this serious business from drooling stupidities of The Onion.

In fact, the PNAC paper said nothing different from what was “reported” in The Onion although it took many more pages to make the point. A brief recapitulation of the report’s more salient point will serve to illustrate how plain thuggery has been brewed into policy.

The report’s preamble announces that at the end of the Twentieth Century, the United States emerged as the preeminent power in the world which, thus, makes it requisite that the its armed forces be maintained in a strengthened state of readiness in order to promote American “principles and interests.”

The notion that principles might at times conflict with interests is simply banished with a conjunction. Principle and Interest are one and the same.

Under the heading “Key Findings,” the paper goes on to assert that “This report proceeds from the belief that America should seek to preserve and extend its position of global leadership by maintaining the preeminence of U.S. military forces. ... The challenge for the coming century is to preserve and enhance this ‘American Peace’.”

Unfortunately Americans are so punch-drunk after half a century of having their brains beaten by meaningless ads and slogans, they are too mentally calloused to so much as feel the hidden punches in these sentences. Like inanimate objects being hit, they can only stagger stupidly.

Both in science and in law, a “finding” is a demonstrated or ascertained fact. But in Billy Kristol’s ThugSpeak, the “finding” is simply the “belief” which is fobbed off as an ascertained fact.

After thus objectifying mere beliefs, the “findings” follow up with a left/right jab that buries the real facts at issue with quintessential double-talk. How is peace “preserved and enhanced”? Peace can be maintained, but otherwise peace is simply peace. Peace cannot be “enhanced” unless what is meant is “gilded” -- which invariable entails someone else paying for the gilding. Similarly, how is leadership “preserved and extended”? Leadership is simply a position held in relation to others. It cannot be “extended” unless what is really meant is extending authority or dominance over more people in more respects. These open ended conjunctives necessarily imply something more than just having peace or just leadership but they hide the undisclosed consequences under the conceptual skirt of simply “preserving” good things.

The way double-speak works is that the idea already stated (once) has to be repeated (twice) as a “conclusion” -- even though there is no real logical argument because the factual findings and premises were simply disguised conclusion. Thus, the “Findings” section concludes with:
“Fulfilling these requirements is essential if America is to retain its militarily dominant status for the coming decades“ and “Today its task is to secure and expand the “zones of democratic peace.”
Technically this might be called a form of argumentative pleonasm. But in all events, what the PNAC’s “Key Findings” come down to is simply an assertion that the United States is the biggest dog on the block and should continue to snap, snarl and bark in order to keep lesser mutts in line, while keeping the big bones for itself.

To this end, the report then postulates four key “missions”. Of course, the mission has already been stated in the “Findings” so that what the missions really denote is nothing more than variable degrees of force to be used, as needed, in order to maintain U.S. hegemony. These variables include the use of tactical and nuclear missiles, conventional continental wars, and -- most significantly -- something called constabulary missions. As shall be seen, these “missions” are really strategies for waging war for global dominance.

Mission One: According to the report, the first “mission” is to “defend the American homeland” Hardly anyone could complain about that! But what the PNAC authors really mean is to defend the U.S. “by counteract[ing] the effects of the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction that may soon allow lesser states to deter U.S. military action”

What must be noted is that the report does not state simply and directly that U.S. security requires continued diplomatic efforts to extend the Nuclear Arms Proliferating Treaty and other arms reduction agreements. What the report means is that the states has to take preemptive military action against any state that may be able to “deter” U.S. military action. The report does not require that the state in question present a “threat” to anyone. The goal is incapacitate any state from being able to “deter” what the United States wants to do.

I
Defense of the Homeland Requires War Overseas!!


Mission Two: The second mission is to “fight and decisively win multiple, simultaneous major theater wars.”

This being double-speak, Mission Two is Mission One with one small difference, viz:

II
Defense of the Homeland Requires Multiple Big Time Wars Overseas!!


Mission Three. The third mission is seemingly straightforward and consist of keeping abreast of and using “advanced technologies in[ ] military systems” But a further reading of the Report reveals that this means more than getting the latest beeping device for torpedoes; rather it includes extending “military capacities” into outer space and using “inner space;” (i.e. the internet) for military purposes.

III
Defense of the Homeland Requires Space War and War in Head Space


Mission Four. The fourth mission is to “perform the “constabulary” duties associated with shaping the security environment in critical regions.” At this point the PNAC is forced to engage in what might be called explanatory double talk. The report warns that “constabulary missions” should not be confused with mere “peacekeeping.” Rather “constabulary actions” are a species of offensive warfare designed to impose and maintain order in various regions of the world. The imposition of peace includes such “routine” measures as maintaining no-fly zones, “other missions” and “long term constabulary operations” over and in “Southwest Asia” and “vital regions of East Asia”

IV
Defense of the Homeland Requires Long Term Occupation Abroad.


The report goes on to assert that the use of “constabulary forces” should be taken out from under UN auspices since the restraints of pretending impartiality in not conducive to their actual role.

Having thus explained what its New World Vision, the Report reverted to now Triple Speak “concluding” that “rogue states” like Iraq, Iran and North Korea represented a threat to the United States inasmuch as they desired to develop “deterrent capabilities”. The capacity of any one of these states to cobble together a primitive ballistic missile would “complicate” the “projection” of American power. According to the report, “U.S. power-projection” could find itself compromised if “the American Homeland or the territory of some ally were subject to an attack by any one of these “malignant regimes.”

Some ally? At least in the foreseeable PNAC future, the U.S. is not going to be conduct “no fly zone” and “constabulary operations” on China’s doorstep. So that, the most immediate incarnation of the four missions boils down invading and occupying the Middle East in order to protect the United States and “some ally.”

The thesis of the report is as simple as it is brutal. The summum bonum is simply the projection of American power. Virtually all elements of Bush’s foreign policy are found in the report including the doctrine of “unilateralism,” the renunciation of “no-first-use” of nuclear weapons, the existence of a supposed axis of evil, the obsession with Iraq extending to such far-fetched allegations (as made in Cincinnati) that Iraq was a threat because it could “point” missiles against the American Homeland.

Nor should it be thought that the parallelism between the PNAC report and Bush policy is simply a coincidence. The report is the labor and reflects the resurgence of the Reaganite extreme right, today led by Cheney and Rumsfeld. In brief,

Donald Rumsfeld has been a hawk’s hawk since the 1970’s when, serving in the Ford Administration, he dedicated himself to undermining Kissinger’s efforts to conclude a Salt II treaty with the Soviets. Rumsfeld also served as mentor to the then young Cheney. The Cheney-Rumsfeld axis has a long history.

Cheney was Secretary of Defense during the Bush-I Administration. According to Colin Powell’s Memoirs, Cheney and his then under-secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, (Rumsfeld’s present day under secretary) stacked the Pentagon’s political-strategy office with former Reagan Administration hawks. Cheney was advocating a hard line against the Soviet Union with the aim of fragmenting it, even at the risk of provoking extremely violent consequences.

At that time, Cheney also asked General Powell to draw up a study analyzing the possible use of nuclear arms during the Gulf War. In 1990, Cheney ordered yet another study to review the geo-political mission of the United States following the end of the Cold War. The report, finished 1992, asserted that America’s “mission” was to insure its own global domination. Regardless of cost, no rival power whatsoever could be tolerated, whether it was Germany, Japan, Russia or China.

According to the Moscow Times, the 1992 study was simply a draft for the PNAC report of September 2000. With reason. The “Project for a New American Century” -- billed as an “educational organization” -- was in fact bankrolled by Rockwell Automation, a Defense Department contractor. The PNAC was headed by William Kristol, editor of the Reaganite Weekly Standard, and staffed with (among others), Paul Wolfowitz and John R. Bolton, a leading unilateralist (“There is no such thing as a United Nations”) currently appointed by Cheney as as under-secretary for international affairs and armaments control.

After the election (such as it was) of Bush II, Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld have worked to assure that new civilian committees in the Pentagon remain staffed with hawks, among them Douglas Feith, who during the Reagan Era was a protegé of Chief Hawk, Richard Perle who today heads the Defense Policy Board, an outside Pentagon advisory committee. During the 1990’s Firth fought against ratification of the Convention on Chemical Armaments. In 1996, Firth y Perle co-authored a paper for Benjamin Netanyahu, then the Likudist prime minister of Israel. The paper urged the scuttling of the Oslo Accords and the reaffirmation of Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank and Gaza. At the same Feith was agitating in the press for a reoccupation by Israel of Palestinian territory regardless of the foreseeable “high price in blood”.

Without further tracing all the individual connections and institutional relationships between various think tanks and government agencies, it can be said summarily that report and Bush-II geo-politics are the work of a well organized and tenacious ultra-right cabal.

The events of 9/11 did not derail anything. On the contrary, the provided the occasion for testing the new “constabulary” measures in Afghanistan. During his 2002 State of the Union Address, three months after the attack on the Twin Towers, Bush seemingly out of the blue pronounced his now famous condemnation against the Axis of Evil. People wondered where this slogan had come from. In fact Bush was only returning to his blue-print.

What is astonishing is not so much that an empire relies on force but rather that the project for a “New American Century” pronounces no vision and no good beyond mere imperiousness. The cabal behind the Report apparently sees no difference between Augustus and Attila.

But if we today remember the Pax Romana it is only because in the ultimate analysis it reflected an international consensus and diffused prosperity and cultural interchange among the peoples of the Mediterranean world. Bush’s Pax Americana postulates nothing more than the Big Stick and Big Plunder. The Report says as much with evident self-satisfaction and pride.

Apart from pathological causes, power for its own sake is pointless, leaving us to look for some motive, whatever it might be, as raison d’etre behind this belligerent peace.

The ties between Cheney and the petro-chemical industry interests indicate oil as a motive. On another side, the affiliations between Wolfowitz or Perle and Israel implicate a zionist motive. Lastly, Rumsfeld long time association with the military-industrial complex point to Eisenhower’s famous complex. Does it have to be one or the other? I think not. It seems to me an error to look for too much logic in politics. To be sure, political projects can be developed with ideological coherence and an encompassing vision. But they do not have to be. It is entirely possible that the three interests mentioned have conspired or simply flowed together to bring forth the policy ad hoc like thieves meeting on the road. This is entirely feasible given that the “principle” behind the policy is simply pillage in one form or another.

The politics of the Rumsfeld-Cheney Axis is not without opposition from the traditional foreign policy establishment as symbolised by Robert McNamara (Defense Secretary under presidents Kennedy and Johnson) and James Baker III (Secretary of State under Bush I) McNamara has vigorously criticised the abandonment of the ABM Treaty and renunciation of no first use. Baker all but called Bush II and imbecile and has publicly opposed the Bush’s doctrine of unilateralism, any invasion of Iraq.

This opposition is not grounded in any transcendental idealism but in the simple and practical realization that the United States cannot operate contra mundum and if not it will have to take into account what the world thinks and wants, so it is best to do what is inevitable with ostensible grace.

Given the domestic and international opposition it is surprising that the Rumsfeld-Cheney project has gained so much momentum. It remains to be seen whether the opposition has the will and the strength to stop it.

©Barfo, 2002

Monday, September 30, 2002

American Kampf

According to the Moscow Times, it is nothing less than an American Mein Kampf -- “it” being the “Rebuilding America’s Defenses -- Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century” a think-tank report from the New Citizenship Project, an offshoot of the conservative Bradley Foundation, a branch of Rockwell Automation, a former defense contractor.

For those who think of Mein Kampf as nothing but a racist rant, the comparison is inapt. For those who remember Hitler's book as an outline and argument for German geo-political hegemony, the comparison is not off the mark. The difference would be that whereas Mein Kampf spoke of dominating Europe for 1000 years, Rebuilding American’s Defenses speaks of controlling the world for a hundred.

The Report’s essential thrust is straightforward and hard: We won; We Rulez; It’s Gonna Stay that Way. The Report draws an unstated but boorishly obvious analogy between the United States and the Roman Empire. With little surprise, its thesis, argument and conclusion is that Pax Americana must be supported by American legions posted around the world and ready to cut the wheat whenever it grows too tall --- to quote Dionysus of Syracuse.

But it is what is lacking from the Report that reveals how miserably it falls short of the analogy it grasps at. There is not a word, not a single word, about Ara Pacis. Why, there isn’t even an iota about the sublimity of American Opera. Cecille B. de Mille may titillate adolescent males with images of clanking and trampling legions but the Augustan Peace, as it was known, was not made great and enduring by engines of war.

If the Roman Empire commands our historical respect now it is because in its day it galvanized the aspirations and consent of the Mediterranean world. Far more than legions, it was the diffusion of prosperity and cross cultural interchange that made for the Roman peace. It was to this that the Altar of Peace hailed with its embracing image of the goddess Roma suckling her infants, uniting East and West, conjoining farming with commerce, the ox and the lamb -- an image which was later morphed into the mothering spirit of Christian Civilization.

The difference between a thug and a statesman is the latter’s subordination of force to some greater goal that commands the aspirations and assent of the ruled. For the thug, and for the Orwellian State power is an end in itself. The report for America’s New Century draws no distinction between Augustus and Attila. It offers nothing more than an Altar of Power.

The Report’s preamble states the matter thus:
“As the 20th century draws to a close, the United States stands as the world’s most preeminent power. Having led the West to victory in the Cold War, America faces an opportunity and a challenge: ... Does the United States have the resolve to shape a new century favorable to American principles and interests?
“[What we require is] a military that is strong and ready to meet both present and future challenges; a foreign policy that boldly and purposefully promotes American principles abroad; and national leadership that accepts the United States’ global responsibilities.
“Of course, the United States must be prudent in how it exercises its power. But ... [i]If we shirk our responsibilities, we invite challenges to our fundamental interests.”
What these “principles” and “interests” are, the Report does not say. Apart from one vague allusion to “liberty and democracy”, the switching ad hoc from one term to the other leads to the conclusion that the report’s authors see no real distinction between a principal and an interest. There is certainly no hint that the vexatiousness of having to choose between one and the other has ever crossed their minds.

The Report is more specific when it comes to what it calls “key findings”.
“This report, proceeds from the belief that America should seek to preserve and extend its position of global leadership by maintaining the preeminence of U.S. military forces. ... The challenge for the coming century is to preserve and enhance this “American peace.”
The Report chastises the Clinton administration for jeopardizing this peace by failing to maintain “sufficient military strength” and it goes on to list the main military muscle programs it wants to see established. The Report continues,
“Fulfilling these requirements is essential if America is to retain its militarily dominant status for the coming decades. ... The true cost of not meeting our defense requirements will be a lessened capacity for American global leadership and, ultimately, the loss of a global security order that is uniquely friendly to American principles and prosperity."
Of course these “findings” are not findings at all but simply conclusionary assertions. In the realm of bureaucratic and legislative reports, “findings” refer to the facts and circumstances of a situation or problem which need to be addressed. For example, the inability of 78% of college graduates to distinguish between a finding and a conclusion, would constitute a factual finding leading to a proposed revamping of college curricula.

Here, however, what is listed as an objective factual finding is simply the “belief” that America should continue to be top dog. American preeminence and power is attached to no other goal or aim or undertaking other than the maintenance of power seen as a good in itself.

The authors apparently regard this belief as so self-evident that it is sufficient to state, vaguely, further on that since the collapse of the Soviet Union there has been “no shortage of powers” seeking to undermine American leadership. “Like a boxer between championship bouts,” the report explains, America has rested and enjoyed the good life; but this is bad. It is bad because, the findings are “that America should seek to preserve and extend its position of global leadership.”

The role of the military in the post Cold War era is “to secure and expand the ‘zones of democratic peace;’ to deter the rise of a new great power competitor; defend key regions of Europe, East Asia and the Middle East; and to preserve American preeminence through the coming transformation of war made possible by new technologies.”

All disciplines (as they are rather comically called) have a certain babble and cant which the disciples expect to hear and which lulls them into the conviction that they are engaged in some kind of dialectic rather than an articulated form of barking. Thus, at this point, past preamble, introduction and findings, it is well to ask exactly what the Report has offered over and beyond being written in some sort of knowing, authoritative style. Not much. It has told us that American power must be preserved and extended as a premise, means and end.

Having established the principle and interest of American preeminence, the Report outlines “four missions” of defense policy. These four missions are not framed as particularized military responses to distinct sets of geo-political issues. They are represent rather a sliding scale (“variables”) of military strikes and responses adjusted to the single and indiscriminate purpose of perpetuating and extending American global rule

According to the Report, the first of these missions is to insure “the safety of the American homeland.” The second is to retain “sufficient forces able to rapidly deploy and win multiple simultaneous large-scale wars” in Europe, East Asia, “the Middle East and surrounding energy producing region.” The third mission consists in maintaining a “constabulary” capacity by means of military outposts and “continuing no-fly-zone and other missions in Southwest Asia. ” The fourth is to introduce “advanced technologies into military systems” including “the prime directive .. . to design and deploy a global missile defense system” among other things.

The layout of these missions is somewhat misleading in that they appear to follow a traditional region-by-region defense hierarchy. The impression given is that they fall into two broad categories: a missile defense system defending the “homeland” on the one hand and military operations “elsewhere” on the other. Elsewhere, in turn, appears to divide into conventional, continental wars on the one hand and misc. ops. here and there to keep order among the natives, on the other.

However, that is not the Report’s framework notwithstanding the utterly bizarre reference to miscellaneous missions in Southwest Asia -- as if the third mission involved someplace other than “the Middle East and surrounding energy producing region.” It doesn’t. What the Report contemplates, in so far as the Middle East is concerned, is both large scale theatre wars and constabulary missions.

The Report also makes clear that these so called constabulary missions are not peacekeeping occupations after the sturm und drang. On the contrary, “[t]hese constabulary missions are far more complex and likely to generate violence than traditional ‘peacekeeping’ missions.” These missions “demand forces basically configured for combat.” While they should be equipped “with special language, logistics and other support skills” and while they should include their own intelligence components, “their first order of business is... to establish security, stability and order” for which reason they “must be regarded as part of an overwhelmingly powerful force.”

It is an odd constabulary that generates violence and what the report envisions is something in the order of a geo-political SWAT team. A combative strike force, less and leaner than “full-theatre” army groups, but one nevertheless fully complemented by naval, air and missile forces, capable of smashing enemy deterrence and establishing the stability and order of pax americana in any given region, at will.

Nor is SWATing seen as anything distinct in kind from missile defense. The Report is clarion clear in its call for “[b]uilding an effective, robust, layered, global system of missile defenses” as “a prerequisite for maintaining American preeminence.” The layering would allow for missile defenses to be projected from elsewhere than the homeland and forms the ballast of the “overwhelming” force which the constabulary spearheads.

Stripped of the man-as-machine jargon, the four missions boil down to being able to smash and blast at what ever degree of force desired simultaneously if need be anywhere in the world.

Nor is this capacity seen as aimed at maintaining geo-political balances. The very term “balance” implies an equilibrium between contending forces. But the Report makes repetitively clear that the only balance it is concerned with is America’s undeterred preeminence....which is of course not a balance at all. Although the report carefully avoids talking about preemptive regime changes, it leaves little doubt that American preeminence should be pro-assertive. Thus, the curiously inverted meaning given in the report to the word deterrence.

Through the end of the Cold War, “deterrence” and “containment” were peas in the same strategic pod. They referred to defensive measures calculated to defend against and prevent attack or expansion. However, in the newspeak of the report, deterrence becomes a bad thing and refers to a state’s ability to resist American advances:
“In the post-Cold War era, America and its allies, rather than the Soviet Union, have become the primary objects of deterrence and it is states like Iraq, Iran and North Korea who most wish to develop deterrent capabilities.”
A marvel of historical and linguistic inversion the sentence implicitly espouses the abandonment of any obeisance to the notion that American military policy is essentially defensive. If we have become “objects of deterrence” it is because our military policy is “projective”. Thus, what turns these states into “rogue regimes” is that they are a threat to the United States, and what makes them a “threat” is that they might be “capable of cobbling together a minuscule ballistic missile force” which would make it more complex and difficult for the United States to project its power or “assert[ ] political influence abroad.”
“[W]eak states operating small arsenals of crude ballistic missiles, armed with basic nuclear warheads or other weapons of mass destruction, will be a in a strong position to deter the United States from using conventional force, no matter the technological or other advantages we may enjoy. Even if such enemies are merely able to threaten American allies rather than the United States homeland itself, America’s ability to project power will be deeply compromised.”
“Building an effective, robust, layered, global system of missile defenses is a prerequisite for maintaining American preeminence.”
To be clear in case one got lost: the purpose of a missile “defense” system is to project American power against rogue regimes that don’t get in line. Clearly, a no first use policy would take the intimidating bite out of this global maw of iron teeth; so while the report may not announce verbatim the nuclear first use policy announced by the Bush Administration earlier in 2002 it does so by implication notwithstanding the layered double-talk.

Once it is understood that the capacity for deterrence by others is a thing to be defeated, the nature of the “constabulary” also comes into focus.

Rather gratuitously at this point, the Report notes that “past Pentagon war-games have given little or no consideration to the force requirements necessary not only to defeat an attack but to remove these regimes from power and conduct post-combat stability operations.” In other words, in addition to “kick em out” and Pentagon’s military mission should be expanded to include “grind em down”.

Nor should there be any illusion of Pax Americana as somehow reflecting an international consensus. It is American preeminence we are talking about here. Thus, the Report states that the constabulary forces “demand American political leadership rather than that of the United Nations.
"Nor can the United States assume a UN-like stance of neutrality; the preponderance of American power is so great and its global interests so wide that it cannot pretend to be indifferent to the political outcome in the Balkans, the Persian Gulf or even when it deploys forces in Africa."
In this new world order, “diplomacy” (which the report mentions about twice) is little more than the demand before the punch.

Lest anyone think that there might be some limitation on American power projection based on the nature of geo-politics as the balance of forces at an inter-national level, the Report goes on to state that American preeminence includes maintaining “the general stability of the international system of nation-states relative to terrorists, organized crime, and other “non-state actors.” Enter the FBI as a global actor.

As if the foregoing were not sufficient evil for the day, the Report boldly goes where not even Mein Kampf dared to soar. American rule will not be limited to Earth. “The ability to assure access to space, freedom of operations space medium, and an ability to deny others the use of space” – must be an essential element of our military strategy.” “Space power” the report crows will be to the 21st century what sea power was to the 19th and to Teddy Roosevelt’s Big Stick.

The Report’s imperious reach does not end in outer space. It sinks its purview into cyberspace as well. “Any nation wishing to assert itself globally,” the report says, “must take account of this other new “global commons.”
“The Internet is ... playing an increasingly important role in warfare and human political conflict. From the early use of the Internet by Zapatista insurgents in Mexico to the war in Kosovo, communication by computer has added a new dimension to warfare. Moreover, the use of the Internet to spread computer viruses reveals how easy it can be to disrupt the normal functioning of commercial and even military computer networks. Any nation which cannot assure the free and secure access of its citizens to these systems will sacrifice an element of its sovereignty and its power.”
The conflation of two distinct issues -- viruses and ideas -- deserves attention. Although it may be a tad hyperbolic to associate a worm with the loss of sovereignty, one can assume for the sake of argument that a State has a police interest in insuring a virus-free internet. But the Zapatista use of the internet to publish their grievances and demands is quite a different matter. Free speech -- the publishing of one’s propaganda of choice -- was and remains one of the principal purposes of the Internet.

The Report seeks to entirely pervert this purpose. In the report’s view, the internet is simply another “dimension of warfare” and its use is something to be discussed in the same breadth as computer viruses.

The Report makes a brief and almost snide obbligato to a “host of legal, moral and political issues” involved before going on to make clear its view that:
“Taken together, the prospects for space war or “cyberspace war” represent the truly revolutionary potential inherent in the notion of military transformation.”
Oh wow...kewl. But having betrayed perhaps a little too much excitement, the report returns to its tone of feeling-less jargon:
“These future forms of warfare are technologically immature, to be sure. But, it is also clear that for the U.S. armed forces to remain preeminent and avoid an Achilles Heel in the exercise of its power they must be sure that these potential future forms of warfare favor America just as today’s air, land and sea warfare reflect United States military dominance.”
What are “these potential future forms of warfare”? That the military (or anyone for that matter) has a legitimate interest in protecting itself against viruses, hacking, code cracking etc. is beyond question. And because it is beyond question that is not what the Report is talking about. Nor is it talking about using computers to control missiles, calculate trajectories and so on. No; it is talking about "cyberspace war" and this can only mean controlling information and using mis-information.

When the Report speaks of the sovereign obligation to “assure the free... access” to the internet it means to includes assuring freedom from hearing the dissenting views of “insurgents” and providing a “safe-surfing” that favors America’s preeminence and power.

When the Report speaks of “the coming transformation of war made possible by new technologies” it is not simply talking about such nifty stuff like laser guided bullets and bombing cities with sticky goo but rather of finding ways to militarize as many things as possible, including data and information which will be subordinated to strategic goals where once they were thought of as servants of truth.

In the end, the Report is more interesting for what it does not say than for its 90 pages of circular and tedious formulations of the need to perpetuate and project preeminence and power. Not once does the Report reference any other higher or even just other value than having and extending power. It does not address world poverty. It does not address sustainable growth and ecological issues. It does not address, even in the tired panaceas of neo-liberalism , how America might provide some Ara Pacis which commands the hopes and relieves the miseries of the world. The report does not even address the narrower more selfish needs of assuring energy production and delivery.

It may well be the case that the world would be better off if everyone took to heart Socrates’ dictum that it is better to suffer evil than to commit it. But that postulation will not get very far around the beltway; and no “realist” would argue that the United States should not think about and plan for clobbering the other guy. But among reasonable men, clobbering is a means not an end; and by this is meant that it is calibrated and conditioned to a spectrum of goods and tradeoffs. The complete absence of any discussion of ends indicates that in the view of the Report’s authors the means of power is and end itself. Nor can a discussion of ends be sloughed off on the grounds that the only immediate concern was tools because means cannot be analyzed without reference to the requirements of the ends they are meant to subserve.

The absence of any discussion of values other than power per se makes the reader all but gasp for some raison d’etre behind layered, global, space positioned missile defenses backing up massive insert and destroy constabularies. The Report offers little more than open ended hints.

One of the interesting features of the report is the assumptions it makes concerning future theatres of operation. The Report is silent on Latin America and makes only one brief passing mention of Africa. It evidently considers the first to be under heel and the second to be unimportant.

The sense one gets from the report is that aside from our treaty obbligatos, the report does not envision any serious military exigencies in Europe. Although it mentions Europe as a potential major theatre there is little up front discussion of where any threat might come from or why the hostilities would erupt, given that the report acknowledges the demise of the Soviet Union. The clue is in the Report’s reference to the creation of a new “American security perimeter in Europe removed eastward.” The use of the word “remove” is cute. No doubt one could hear chuckles coming from the PNAC headquarters on Park Avenue. What is meant, obviously, is rolling back the Russian sphere influence and replacing it with a cordon sanitaire stretching from the Baltic states, through the Balkans and into the Caucasus and Central Asian underbelly. While the Report apparently thinks that the Russian will roll over like docile circus animal, it acknowledges a potential for all hell breaking loose in Europe.

The Report's next stated area of concern was the Pacific/East Asia theatre. However, it proffers no analysis of Sino-American relations nor any reasoning for its conclusion that the preponderance of American military force should refocused and redeployed toward the Far East. Bearing in mind Napoleon’s famous dictum , one can accept, at least in theory, that if a future “full theatre” threat to United States exists it would very likely come from China. One does not have to be a think-tank expert to realize that China, far more than North Korea and far more than the once Soviet Union, has the potential to present a military and economic challenge to America. Such a threat, involving economic and military factors with countries and locations as removed as India, Australia, Japan and Mongolia, would be rife with complexities, none of which are given even the most superficial analysis, other than to say that over the long term we should prepare to blow the hell out of the Far East.

Instead the Report tarries at length in what it disingenuously calls “Southwest Asia." Why so coy? It is hardly surprising that the Middle East would be designated as a possible theatre of conflict. What is noteworthy is that the Report does not make a single mention of Israel or of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Instead the Report asserts that instability in the region is entirely due to the “rogue” states of Iraq and Iran.

Astonishingly enough, the Report makes no claim that Iran or Iraq were supporting “terrorism”. It makes no claim that they were currently (September 2000) developing any kind of weapon of mass destruction, although it suspected they probably would like to. Instead the Report tacitly assumes the success of no-fly zones and daily bombing runs over Iraq. In final analysis the Report concedes that neither rogue Iraq nor rogue Iran present any serious danger to the United States, stating both candidly and cryptically “While none of these operations involves a mortal threat, they do engage U.S. national security interests directly, as well as engaging American moral interests.”

Moral interests? It is almost too much even for black comedy. What could possibly be meant?
“In the post-Cold War era, America and its allies, rather than the Soviet Union, have become the primary objects of deterrence and it is states like Iraq, Iran and North Korea who most wish to develop deterrent capabilities. Projecting conventional military forces or simply asserting political influence abroad, particularly in times of crisis, will be far more complex and constrained when the American homeland or the territory of our allies is subject to attack by otherwise weak rogue regimes capable of cobbling together a minuscule ballistic missile force. Building an effective, robust, layered, global system of missile defenses is a prerequisite for maintaining American preeminence.”
Evidently the Report was so preoccupied with dancing around the Ally Who Shall Not Be Named, that it broke one of its ellipses. (Doubletalk can get confusing, but the Soviet Union was never an “object of deterrence” given the altered meaning of the word in the sentence.) What the paragraph says is that states like Iraq, Iran and North Korea are threats (to us) because they wish to be able to deter threats to themselves. Accepting for the sake of argument that another countries defensive capacities constitute a threat, the question remains how and in what way those capacities would amount to a threat to the United States? The answer given is that threat arises “when the American homeland or the territory of our allies is subject to attack by otherwise weak rogue regimes capable of cobbling together a minuscule ballistic missile force.”

Parsing the rationale, the Report argues that the American “homeland” could be subject to “minuscule ballistic missiles” cobbled together by “rogue regimes.” In other words, we should be concerned (on a prioritized basis) that North Korea or Iran or Iraq will launch a jumbo fire-cracker at the United States.

It is simply beyond inane and it contradicts the previous acknowledgement that Iran, Iraq and North Korea’s “deterrent” capacities do not present any “mortal” threat to the United States. There is only one state that could suffer any damage (if that) from garage-made mini-missiles. “America” got tossed into the disjunctive threat equation simply as a way of masquerading that the Report’s focus was on Israeli security in which, it asserts, we have a “moral” interest.

Thus while the Report asserts U.S. global and inter-planetary power projection as a pre eminent good anywhere anytime, the near-term geo-political interests it singles out is (1) the encirclement of Russia (including control over the energy regions in the Caucasus) and (2) the protection of Israel by destroying Iraq and Iran’s deterrent capacities.

The Report was finished in September 2000. It is not shy in its criticism of Clinton’s policies and assumes rather confidently that the next administration would be amenable to the “findings” presented.

The confidence of its authors was not misplaced. “The safety of the American homeland” has now become the Office of Homeland Security. The “rogue states” of Iraq, Iran and North Korea, have emerged as the Axis of the Evil. The Bush Doctrine on nuclear weapons has fleshed out the meaning of “nuclear superiority is nothing to be ashamed of”. The Defense Department’s Office of Disinformation has given us a taste of “future forms” of information warfare; and the Patriot Act has given us a taste of just how difficult and complicated the administration considered that “host of legal, moral and political issues” concerning privacy and free speech. Last but not least, the administration’s lust for war with Iraq is giving us an example of the constabulary forces in action.


©Barfo, 2002

Tuesday, April 02, 2002

PBS News Hour Buries Map of What Israel Offered

Despite repeated requests the Public Bullshit System News Hour refuses to publish a MAP of Israel's supposedly "generous" to Arafat at the Camp David Summit. Instead, the News Hour accepts the Israeli provided "contextualization" of events and like an obedient drone repeats the Israeli version of events.

In this (longish) letter Barfo barfs back and lambasts PBS for being such slavish imbeciles.

©Barfo, 2002

Saturday, January 12, 2002

Bound & Gagged -- The Policy, not the Rag


About a month ago when we were rounding up the Taliban, we Chipsters read on CNN.com that the surrendered or captured fighters were being led off to their place of detention "shackled, blindfolded and gagged".  Gagged?

Say what? Has SM become part of official policy or is some "logistical planner" rather pulsing up a sweat at his desk while he draws up these protocols?

Dragging off captives shackled is about as old as dragging off captives. As far as I know, dragging off captives shackled and blindfolded became a practice during the Vietnam War, although I am sure it had been done to isolated individuals before that time. But gagged? The procedure served no purpose other than to humiliatingly, depersonalize by an act of dominance barely removed and metaphorically close to rape.

Reassuringly enough, the story was accompanied by a blurry dark foto showing some bars and an "enemy" kneeling before someone standing. More recently, as Taliban members have been transported farther, the Pentagon has placed a gag on the press. Apparently, CNN broadcast pictures of the detainees being led about in jump suits and shackles, but since then the Pentagon has prohibited any more such pictures. The pressure must have been fairly intense because we can't find pictures clipped from the broadcast anywhere on CNN's web page. In fact, all one sees is fascinating pictures of guard towers, barbed wire and MPs. With a cynicism quite worthy of Goering, the government says that the prohibition is designed to spare the detainees "public humiliation" in accordance with Geneva Protocols. It is well understood that those provisions are aimed at preventing the dragging of prisoners through howling mobs, putting them on stages or cages in the public square and so on. They have nothing to do with press coverage. More saliently, those same protocols prohibit humiliation whether private or public and keeping prisoners in open air cages would seem to be a serious violation of the standards of treatment we purport to follow.

As one has no doubt read, there have been contradictory information on whether all or some of these Taliban were drugged for the flight to Guantanamo. What is clear is that they were ear-plugged, goggle-blinded, shackled near to immobile and given a bottle to piss in. Rumsfeld has justified this torture-by-sensory deprivation on the grounds that these brutes are so vicious they would "gnaw through the cables" of the airplane just to bring it down. Really! At any rate, it must have been quite a trip, since it was reported that, on arrival, the plane was cleaned up and "disinfected".

It was equivocally reported that, on arrival, some of the Taliban might possibly have "resisted" by falling to the ground or perhaps their legs were weak. Guards were seen yelling at them but this, it was said, was due to the earplugs. Musta been mighty strong earplugs or were the hapless prisoners drugged after all?

And what have these men done to deserve this treatment -- supposing this kind of treatment is deserved by anyone? As far as I can recall Afghanistan was a sovereign country. It was controlled, up to 90% by the Taliban. Under international law that made the Taliban the de facto government of that country. At the very least, it qualified for recognition as a recognized belligerent, which usually occurs when one warring party controls some "significant" portion of territory.

The general rule is also that the de facto government becomes the de jure one, although there is no requirement that it be officially recognized by any other sovereign state, because the cardinal rule of all international law is that you can't tell a sovereign what to do, unless he agrees to be told. It was for this "reason" that the U.S. could withhold recognition of Communist China for 30 years. At any rate, no matter how one cuts it and regardless of U.S. recognition or lack of it, the Taliban could not be characterized as a band of bandits or partisans. They had acquired some status between recognizable belligerent and official government; and what that means is that the individual Taliban qualify as POWs.

And what did any of these individuals do to be classified as criminals? I have heard nothing to show that any of them had any hand in the 9/11 bombing. Rather, as part of a belligerent party or government, they fought (for a while) against foreign parties invading their country. But in the American view, this is a criminal act. So... if we were to go to war with un-recognized Cuba, and its army were to fight back and loose, we could drag it off to some "detention" center in Georgia?

But even supposing that the Taliban are criminals, it is astonishing to see the government take the position that criminals can be treated like factory or circus animals. (Not that animals should be treated that way either).

Well....in the long perspective of "the crimes, vices and follies that comprise the history of mankind" (Gibbon) it is all a relatively small thing; but a small thing that is deeply disgusting and which betrays a depravity of mind that pervades our government.

© Barfo 2002